Analytics
Resolved Yes on 13 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 69% on 18 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 18 Dec 2025 to 13 Jan 2026, the highest close was 99.9% on 13 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 10 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 91 points up, to 99.9% on 13 Jan 2026. $86.48K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 14, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 18 Dec 2025 – 13 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Dec 2025 | 69.0% |
| 13 Jan 2026 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| mumu456 | No | 5K |
| Instructive-Pavement | No | 2K |
| MyLige | No | 2K |
| Torn-Pomegranate | No | 1.67K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione smiles during his next court appearance after the creation of this market. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only smiles captured on photo or video will count toward the resolution of this market, and only smiles captured in the courtroom will qualify. Smiles captured during transportation to or from his next court appearance will not qualify. If Luigi Mangione does not appear in court by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be photos and videos of Luigi Mangione's next appearance in court.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-luigi-mangione-smile-during-next-court-appearance
| randomizer88 | No | 808.56 |
| Uncommon-Pasture | No | 346.25 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 232 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 216 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 106 |
| Liamyxy | No | 100 |
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