Will London have between 40-50mm of precipitation in August?

Resolved

No, settled Sep 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.4K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Sep 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 93.8%. Yes opened at 22.5% on 30 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 34 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 1 Sep 2026, the highest close was 39% on 2 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.6% on 29 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 4.5% on 13 Aug 2026. $1.36K traded over the market's life.

11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 1 Sep 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Jul 2026	22.5%
1 Sep 2026	6.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Bold Vector 907C	Yes	765.4
Indigo Signal 2966	No	486.27
Capital-Aardvark	Yes	100

10 of 11 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in August, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for August 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of August 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.