Analytics
Yes is at 6.5%, down 18 points from 24% when the market opened on 13 Aug 2026.
Across the 76 daily closes on record from 13 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 29% on 23 Sep 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 19 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.5%; a month before, 19%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 29% on 23 Sep 2026.
$36.47K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $919.57, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 361 trades, $3.52K bought Yes and $5.58K bought No; the largest was a $2.87K sell of No at 87.1¢.
The largest Yes position is yenky with 5.3K shares; the largest No position is LaPulgaLeo with 2.6K. Ten wallets hold 85.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 76 points, 13 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2026 | 24.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| yenky | Yes | 5.33K |
| LaPulgaLeo | No | 2.62K |
| wigglew | No | 1.92K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi officially announces his retirement from club-level professional soccer by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To resolve "Yes", the announcement must clearly state that Messi is retiring or indefinitely departing from club-level professional soccer with the intention of not participating in any club competition. The announcement must come from Messi himself or official representatives thereof. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure from club competition intended to be effective within 12 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave club soccer in 2 years," nor "I will not play forever," would qualify). If Messi retires in a qualifying manner but maintains, renews, or announces his intention to participate in international soccer (e.g., for the Argentina national team), that retirement will still qualify. International soccer participation will have no bearing on this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the named individual or authorized representatives thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-lionel-messi-announce-his-retirement-in-2026-20260812202203300
| tetrase |
| No |
| 883.19 |
| Vivacious-Meeting | Yes | 811.62 |
| Bold Voyager AC5F | Yes | 674.68 |
| Bright Ledger 6271 | No | 628.63 |
| artefakt | No | 500 |
| WatchTheTape | No | 423.12 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 422.91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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