Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.7%. Yes opened at 22% on 5 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 65 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2026 to 11 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 29.5% on 6 Mar 2026 and the lowest 3.4% on 11 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 29.5% on 6 Mar 2026.
33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 12, 4:57 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 65 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 11 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 22.0% |
| 11 Mar 2026 | 3.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| wuwei88 | Yes | 413.78 |
| Good-Evocation | Yes | 128.33 |
| Rectangular-Comradeship | Yes | 95.24 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi officially announces his retirement from club soccer by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To resolve "Yes", the announcement must clearly state that Messi is retiring from club-level professional soccer. The announcement must come from Messi himself or his official representatives. Retirement from international soccer alone will not qualify. The retirement must be intended to take effect immediately or prior to the start of the next club season following the announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Lionel Messi; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-lionel-messi-announce-his-retirement-in-2026
| Yes |
| 75.78 |
| klaach | Yes | 71.43 |
| Willing-Ligand | Yes | 71.43 |
| Schmeter | Yes | 64.44 |
| luisdabets | Yes | 56.48 |
| Grateful-Mobility | Yes | 48.51 |
| Emotional-Element | Yes | 45.83 |
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