Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 50% on 6 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 50% on 6 Jan 2026 and the low 0.1% on 30 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 28% on 7 Jan 2026. $59.42K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 27 points · 6 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 50.0% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 453 |
| acal | Yes | 296.41 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 227 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 116 |
| sorceress | Yes | 99.99 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 74 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 66 |
| AsuraSmellsLikeASS | Yes | 50 |
| tiancs | Yes | 50 |
| sun888 | Yes | 45.45 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
What price will Lighter hit in January?
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-lighter-hit-in-january
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