Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 60% on 6 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 78.5% on 7 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 33.5% on 11 Jan 2026. $17.63K traded over the market's life.
35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 1, 8:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 60.0% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| air99 | Yes | 3.64K |
| SimpsonFan | Yes | 909.22 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 540.92 |
| crypto4rb | Yes | 371.1 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
What price will Lighter hit in January?
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-lighter-hit-in-january
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| OlDWoolF | Yes | 249.99 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 228.96 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 215 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 132.98 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 102.97 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 99.97 |
