Will Liberals lead by more than 5% on April 4?

Resolved

Yes, settled Apr 4, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$15.9K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Apr 4, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 4 Apr 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 84%. Yes opened at 17.5% on 29 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 29 Mar 2025 to 4 Apr 2025, the highest close was 90.5% on 3 Apr 2025 and the lowest 17.5% on 29 Mar 2025. Its largest one-day move was 27 points up, to 70% on 2 Apr 2025. $15.94K traded over the market's life.

12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 5, 4:03 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 29 Mar 2025 – 4 Apr 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
29 Mar 2025	17.5%
4 Apr 2025	84.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.47K
Neon Oracle 019D	No	900
Bright Quasar 3C80	No	760
Solar Falcon 2FF5	No	500

10 of 12 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market on the CBCNews Polling Average margin between the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party as of April 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines located on the line graph at https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada. Changes in the methodology by which CBCNews calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the CBCNews Polling Average margin data between the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party is not available as of April 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, the last published data will be used. If CBCNews polling becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published data.