Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 28.5% on 3 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 16 daily closes on record from 3 Feb 2026 to 18 Feb 2026, the highest close was 28.5% on 3 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 17 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 8.5% on 4 Feb 2026. $42.87K traded over the market's life.
65 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 18, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 3 Feb 2026 – 18 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | 28.5% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| qimalan | Yes | 2.41K |
| shaonianyou. | Yes | 500 |
| KARACAC | Yes | 330.28 |
| NavalWang | Yes | 273.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The Spring Festival Gala is a celebration of the Chinese New Year set to air on February 16, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Li Guyi performs at the Spring Festival Gala. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Appearances during which Li Guyi does not perform will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. If the Spring Festival Gala is cancelled or otherwise does not occur by February 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be video of the event or a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-li-guyi-perform-at-the-spring-festival-gala
| ece666 | Yes | 223.99 |
| fwed33 | Yes | 219 |
| RichRyan | Yes | 208.98 |
| Old-Discovery | Yes | 205.37 |
| Forceful-Perp | Yes | 204.25 |
| FRANKIE000 | Yes | 125.3 |
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