Analytics
Resolved No on 27 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 49% on 7 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 87 daily closes on record from 7 Feb 2026 to 27 May 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49% on 7 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 3 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 41 points up, to 41.9% on 29 Apr 2026. $2.77K traded over the market's life.
37 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 28, 1:03 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 87 points, 7 Feb 2026 – 27 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | 49.0% |
| 27 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.85K |
| tamalaile | Yes | 351.48 |
| bianbaba | Yes | 306.28 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tx-38-republican-primary-winner
| Yes |
| 200.5 |
| sisitr | No | 200.5 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150.01 |
| rated | Yes | 115 |
| niglette | Yes | 108.1 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 64.43 |
| t189 | Yes | 50 |
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