Analytics
“Will Lacy or Marlon die to a blaze?” is a sports prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Which mobs will eliminate Lacy or Marlon?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 7 Sep 2026. $2.51K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 4 daily price points from Sep 4, 2026 UTC to Sep 7, 2026 UTC (Yes between 1.1% and 19.5%); 9 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 32 recent public fills from 16 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Lacy and Marlon started streaming a gaming marathon on September 1, 2026. They will attempt a challenge to beat Call of Duty: Warzone, Fortnite, and Minecraft. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a death message containing the specified mob's name is displayed for either Lacy or Marlon following an in-game Minecraft death between market creation and the end of the marathon. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any death message containing the specified mob's name will count, including its plural and possessive forms, and regardless of how the mob caused the in-game death. The exact mob name must appear; a death message naming a different mob whose name contains the specified mob's name will not count. For example, an in-game death to a Wither Skeleton will not resolve "Skeleton" to "Yes," and an in-game death to a Cave Spider will not resolve "Spider" to "Yes." An in-game death seeming to be caused by the specified mob will not count if the mob's name does not appear in the death message. A death message produced by any means other than an actual in-game death, including chat messages, overlays, or messages triggered by commands, will not count. Only one qualifying in-game death is required, and it may be by either player. This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately upon a qualifying in-game death. An in-game death occurring on either Lacy's or Marlon's stream will count. Only in-game deaths occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the challenge live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify. If a qualifying death has not occurred since market creation and the marathon ends or is cancelled, this market will resolve to "No." If a qualifying death has not occurred since market creation and the marathon is still ongoing as of September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcasts of Lacy and Marlon.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-mobs-will-eliminate-lacy-or-marlon
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 4 points · 4 Sep 2026 – 7 Sep 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 15.5% |
| 7 Sep 2026 | 1.1% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 200.32 |
| not-stopping-til-100000 | Yes | 178.55 |
| .Menthe | Yes |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 50 |
| Bodytobody | Yes | 31 |
| PPMT | Yes | 30 |
| zalupcin | Yes | 29.99 |
| catalanpaths | Yes | 23 |
| f54940e77 | Yes | 7.37 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
