Will Kyle Larson win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Daytona 500?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 16, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$2.0K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 16, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 16 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 33.5% on 10 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 10 Feb 2026 to 16 Feb 2026, the highest close was 33.5% on 10 Feb 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 16 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 16.5% on 11 Feb 2026. $1.96K traded over the market's life.

19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 17, 8:25 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 10 Feb 2026 – 16 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
10 Feb 2026	33.5%
16 Feb 2026	1.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
TENETENET	Yes	999.95
Indigo Signal 2966	No	848.65
Crimson Falcon C79A	Yes	202.99
bjprolo	Yes	100

10 of 19 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the driver who wins the 2026 NASCAR Daytona 500, scheduled for February 15, 2026, 2:30 PM ET. The market will resolve based on the official final race results published by NASCAR following the conclusion of the race. The official final results include any applied time penalties or official adjustments made by NASCAR at the time of publication. Any disqualifications or result changes made after publication of the official final results will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result; only NASCAR’s published final results will be used. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 Daytona 500 per the rules of the NASCAR Cup Series (e.g., disqualification, driver withdraws), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 NASCAR Daytona 500 is cancelled, postponed past March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NASCAR (https://www.nascar.com/).