
Yes is at 39.5%, up 23 points from 16.5% when the market opened on 20 May 2026.
Across the 157 daily closes on record from 20 May 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 67.5% on 24 Jul 2026 and the lowest 8.5% on 5 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 34.5%; a month before, 42.5%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points up, to 51.5% on 16 Sep 2026.
↓$8B ranks second of the 7 outcomes in “Will Kraken's valuation hit __ by December 31?”. ↑$12.5B leads at 39.5%; ↑$15B is at 13.1%.
$8.34 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $12.76K since listing. The order book holds $324.2, with a 7.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 220 trades, $1.29K bought Yes and $1.18K bought No.
The largest Yes position is YoungAlphaGoat with 591 shares; the largest No position is MaxEnt with 210. Ten wallets hold 86.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 5 Jan 2027, 70 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 157 points, 20 May 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 May 2026 | 16.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 39.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| YoungAlphaGoat | Yes | 591.08 |
| MaxEnt | No | 210 |
| Anjun | No | 207 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
| vinii |
| No |
| 195.97 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 178.48 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 128.71 |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | No | 123.22 |
| Haradwaith | No | 112.02 |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 52.44 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 52.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-krakens-valuation-hit-by-december-31
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