Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 Dec 2025.
$354.51 traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 13, 8:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 1 point, 12 Dec 2025, chart shows 70%–82%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Dec 2025 | 75.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| triklozoid | No | 14.99 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
A federal judge ordered the release of Kilmar Abrego Garcia from immigration detention on December 11, 2025. You can read more about that here: https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-orders-immediate-release-kilmar-abrego-garcia-immigration/story?id=126511576. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kilmar Abrego Garcia is released from custody by December 11, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Abrego Garcia is released from custody by the resolution date but remains under house arrest, this market will resolve to "Yes". If Abrego Garcia is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving government custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Abrego Garcia to another location of custody (i.e., a separate immigration detention facility, criminal custody in a prison or jail, or a hospital under custodial guard) will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from relevant U.S. government bodies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-kilmar-abrego-garcia-be-released-today
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