Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 42.5% on 5 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 5 Feb 2026 to 7 Mar 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 92% on 4 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.8% on 6 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 91 points down, to 1% on 5 Mar 2026.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 8, 10:17 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 7 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 42.5% |
| 7 Mar 2026 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.66K |
| Silver Voyager 3CE7 | Yes | 464.89 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/texas-republican-senate-primary-first-round-winner
| Yes |
| 200 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 99.11 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 60 |
| daroghi | Yes | 30 |
| PX5300 | Yes | 29.94 |
| Geraldinert | Yes | 21.59 |
| lianzhangqiang | Yes | 21.32 |
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