Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 52.5% on 18 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 18 Oct 2024 to 11 Nov 2024, the highest close was 52.5% on 18 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.2% on 9 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 0.5% on 7 Nov 2024. $112.07K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 12, 7:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 18 Oct 2024 – 11 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2024 | 52.5% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| kro | Yes | 1.59K |
| MarsLife | Yes | 1.1K |
| ClassicSilence | Yes | 618.97 |
| lambobmal | Yes | 607 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research. This market will resolve to “Yes” Kamala Harris's share of female voters is 60% or greater in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on female voters this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered. Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-kamala-win-60-or-more-of-women
| Glaring-Marimba | Yes | 439.17 |
| ArtemFomenko | Yes | 427.06 |
| pakaplace | Yes | 312.5 |
| elPolloLoco | Yes | 247 |
| Lacaballota | Yes | 213 |
| Use4785248 | Yes | 192.23 |
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