Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Sep 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 82.5%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 27 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 27 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2024, the highest close was 29.5% on 28 Sep 2024 and the lowest 17.5% on 30 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 17.5% on 30 Sep 2024. $19.56K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 1, 3:52 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 27 Sep 2024 – 30 Sep 2024, chart shows 15%–35%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2024 | 20.5% |
| 30 Sep 2024 | 17.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| kol112 | Yes | 75 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Kamala Harris has scheduled to give a speech on September 29 in Las Vegas, Nevada (see: https://www.mobilize.us/2024nvvictory/event/706397/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Harris says "China" 3 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "China" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the East Asian country with the official name "the People's Republic of China". If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 29, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the speech.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-kamala-say-during-nevada-speech
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