Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 21 Sep 2024. Before it settled, the high was 6.5% on 21 Sep 2024 and the low 0.1% on 28 Sep 2024. $1.09M traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 5, 3:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 21 Sep 2024 – 4 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Sep 2024 | 6.5% |
| 4 Oct 2024 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 43.42K |
| flexfarmflex | Yes | 7.09K |
| Oleg2354 | Yes | 2.88K |
| qrpenc | Yes | 1K |
| ULYTORYL | Yes | 126 |
| SimpleJoy | Yes | 118 |
| AtomZ | Yes | 102 |
| elodiereutlinger | Yes | 101 |
| ElectricPulse | Yes | 75 |
| FrostFlame | Yes | 70 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of October 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average margin is Harris +3.5 or more percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The RCP Polling Average will be checked on October 4, 12:00 PM ET. Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used. If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by October 7, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of October 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-friday-oct-4
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