Will Kamala lead in RCP by 3-3.4 on Oct 18?

politicsResolved

No, settled Oct 18, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$90.9K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 18, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 18 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 2.1% on 8 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 8 Oct 2024 to 18 Oct 2024, the highest close was 2.1% on 8 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 16 Oct 2024. $90.94K traded over the market's life.

10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 19, 12:30 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 8 Oct 2024 – 18 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
8 Oct 2024	2.1%
18 Oct 2024	0.8%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	35.93K
qrpenc	Yes	1K
sxyrexy	Yes	485
Fenrilabar	Yes	128

10 of 10 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of October 18, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average margin is between Harris +3.0 (inclusive) and Harris +3.4 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The RCP Polling Average will be checked on October 18, 12:00 PM ET. Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used. If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by October 22, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of October 18, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.