Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 September 6?

politicsResolved

No, settled Sep 6, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$136.4K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 6, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 6 Sep 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 94%. Yes opened at 51.5% on 29 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 29 Aug 2024 to 6 Sep 2024, the highest close was 53.5% on 4 Sep 2024 and the lowest 6% on 6 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 22% on 30 Aug 2024. $136.41K traded over the market's life.

9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 7, 6:07 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 29 Aug 2024 – 6 Sep 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
29 Aug 2024	51.5%
6 Sep 2024	6.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	55.36K
Lazy-Alphabet	Yes	1.9K
qrpenc	Yes	500
Neglected-Outback	Yes	22.48

9 of 9 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of September 6, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average margin is between Harris +2.0 (inclusive) and Harris +2.4 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The RCP Polling Average will be checked on September 6, 12:00 PM ET. Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used. If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by September 10, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of September 6, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.