Will Kamala lead by 1.6-2.0 or more points on September 20?

politicsResolved

Yes, settled Sep 20, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$138.9K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 20, 2024 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 20 Sep 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 80.5%. Yes opened at 15.5% on 11 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 11 Sep 2024 to 20 Sep 2024, the highest close was 80.5% on 20 Sep 2024 and the lowest 15.5% on 11 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 40 points up, to 80.5% on 20 Sep 2024. $138.95K traded over the market's life.

2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 21, 6:42 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 11 Sep 2024 – 20 Sep 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
11 Sep 2024	15.5%
20 Sep 2024	80.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	43.8K
Humble-Venture	Yes	0.02

2 of 2 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of September 20, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average margin between Harris +1.6 (inclusive) and Harris +2.0 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The RCP Polling Average will be checked on September 20, 12:00 PM ET. Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used. If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by September 24, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of September 20, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.