Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 50% on 10 Jan 2024. Before it settled, across the 308 daily closes on record from 10 Jan 2024 to 12 Nov 2024, the highest close was 77.4% on 16 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 12 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 72 points down, to 0.1% on 7 Nov 2024. $163.78M traded over the market's life.
1,000 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 13, 10:03 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 308 points, 10 Jan 2024 – 12 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2024 | 50.0% |
| 12 Nov 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 27.92M |
| qwrasdz | Yes | 1.93M |
| adfds | Yes | 1.84M |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris is the candidate who receives the most votes in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” In case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the candidate whose last name comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting as to who is the winner of the popular vote. Note: An update may be made to this market to allow for early expiration if the candidate is definitively no longer in contention for the presidency.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024
| Fare | Yes | 1.48M |
| StarVoting | Yes | 1.12M |
| McDonalds-Employee | Yes | 1.02M |
| guinness1973 | Yes | 878.21K |
| Carlyle | Yes | 800K |
| Angry2020 | Yes | 756.02K |
| lolguy | Yes | 656.41K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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