Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?

politicsResolved

Yes, settled Aug 25, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$576.3K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Aug 25, 2024 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 25 Aug 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 73%. Yes opened at 53.5% on 23 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 23 Aug 2024 to 25 Aug 2024, the highest close was 78% on 24 Aug 2024 and the lowest 53.5% on 23 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 78% on 24 Aug 2024. $576.25K traded over the market's life.

27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 26, 6:16 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 23 Aug 2024 – 25 Aug 2024, chart shows 40%–90%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
23 Aug 2024	53.5%
25 Aug 2024	73.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
YGs	No	1.42K
f3rn	No	1.31K
k-cool	No	1.26K
citizen221	No	718.25

10 of 27 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris is more likely to win the 2024 US Presidential election than Donald Trump for any continuous period of 2 hours or greater, between August 22, 2024, 12 PM ET, and August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, according to Polymarket. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a comparison between the charts for each candidate found at https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 when the “6H” option is selected and decimals are turned on (settings icon -> Decimals toggled on). Note that Harris's odds needs to be strictly greater than Trump's for the continuous 2 hour period for this market to resolve to "Yes."