Will August 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

Resolved

No, settled Sep 10, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$578

Resolved

Settled

Sep 10, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 10 Sep 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 49% on 30 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 43 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 10 Sep 2026, the highest close was 54.5% on 2 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 6 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 6.5% on 11 Aug 2026. $577.94 traded over the market's life.

2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 43 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 10 Sep 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Jul 2026	49.0%
10 Sep 2026	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	288.07
79fsdfs	Yes	6.48

2 of 2 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.