Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 0.5% on 27 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 55 daily closes on record from 27 Nov 2025 to 19 Jan 2026, the highest close was 0.7% on 29 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 19 Jan 2026. $2.3K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 55 points, 27 Nov 2025 – 19 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Nov 2025 | 0.5% |
| 19 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 101 |
| Cosmic Signal BD30 | Yes | 10 |
| AsuraSmellsLikeASS | Yes | 9.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. The two candidates with the greatest number of votes in the first round will advance to the second round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidates that qualify for the second round of this election. If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". If a candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-qualify-for-the-second-round-of-the-portugal-presidential-election
| No |
| 2 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 1 |
| meropi | No | 0.03 |
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