Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 75%. Yes opened at 22% on 4 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2026 to 9 Sep 2026, the highest close was 26% on 7 Sep 2026 and the lowest 20% on 5 Sep 2026. $1.17K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 4 Sep 2026 – 9 Sep 2026, chart shows 18%–28%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 22.0% |
| 9 Sep 2026 | 25.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| d0nw00F764353EEC64dCe1347709a578C6ca4545 | Yes | 100 |
| Celebrated-Mayonnaise | Yes | 82.83 |
| wwi | Yes | 44 |
| Passionate-Acorn | Yes | 15.71 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
John Ternus is scheduled to participate in Apple's "Surprise and Shine" event on September 9, 2026, 1 PM ET (https://www.apple.com/apple-events/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Ternus says the listed term at any point during the event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If John Ternus does not speak during the event, the event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-john-ternus-say-during-his-apple-keynote-20260902
| Hungry-Coke | Yes | 10 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 8 |
| a5533 | Yes | 6.42 |
| Rapid Pulse 9380 | Yes | 4 |
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