Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96.1%. Yes opened at 50% on 26 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 97% on 2 Mar 2026 and the low 45% on 3 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 47% on 2 Dec 2025. $9.82K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 5, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 100 points, 26 Nov 2025 – 4 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Nov 2025 | 50.0% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | 96.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 471.95 |
| fenfen | No | 277 |
| 0xRocket666 | No | 165 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tx-31-republican-primary-winner
| No |
| 47.33 |
| wokerjoesleeper | No | 46 |
| kalytics | No | 45.81 |
| Jade Horizon C4F7 | No | 44.91 |
| Azure Meteor 1EAD | No | 43.65 |
| Avarice31 | No | 20 |
| Utter-Downgrade | No | 15 |
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