Analytics
Resolved Yes on 21 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 68%. Yes opened at 37% on 4 Jul 2024. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 4 Jul 2024 to 21 Jul 2024, the highest close was 74.5% on 17 Jul 2024 and the lowest 18% on 20 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 50 points up, to 68% on 21 Jul 2024. $3.4K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 22, 1:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 4 Jul 2024 – 21 Jul 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2024 | 37.0% |
| 21 Jul 2024 | 68.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PolyDegen69420 | No | 1.27 |
| FlukkyYedHee | No | 1.27 |
| Emerald Summit E3E8 | No | 1.27 |
| LoneLyPop1 | No | 1.27 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Manchin publicly states that Joe Biden should drop out of the 2024 presidential race before 12:00 AM ET on the first day of the Democratic National Convention, currently scheduled for August 19, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Statements that the Democratic party should nominate another candidate other than Joe Biden will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Statements that are hedged or express ambiguity, such as “We need to consider our options for the nominee” will NOT qualify for a “Yes” resolution. If the DNC does not begin by August 31, and Joe Manchin has not called for Biden to leave the ticket, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Joe Manchin or his official representative(s); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-call-for-biden-to-step-down
| zhangcong06 | Yes | 0.01 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
