Will Biden's 538 approval reach 43% in September?

politicsResolved

No, settled Oct 1, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$39.2K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 1, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 52.5% on 5 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 5 Sep 2024 to 1 Oct 2024, the highest close was 52.5% on 5 Sep 2024 and the lowest 0.6% on 1 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 20% on 7 Sep 2024. $39.19K traded over the market's life.

24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:46 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 5 Sep 2024 – 1 Oct 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
5 Sep 2024	52.5%
1 Oct 2024	0.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
marquezrodrigo	Yes	200
mauriziomorandi	Yes	100
jamesmorris	Yes	100
martinarussell	Yes	100

10 of 24 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden's approval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight is greater than or equal to 43.0% for any day between September 3, and September 30, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for each day must be finalized before they are considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.