Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Aug 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 50% on 16 Dec 2022. Before it settled, across the 587 daily closes on record from 16 Dec 2022 to 7 Aug 2024 (14 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 90.5% on 7 May 2024 and the lowest 0.4% on 22 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 46% on 18 Jul 2024. $5.77M traded over the market's life.
181 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 8, 1:52 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 587 points, 16 Dec 2022 – 7 Aug 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Dec 2022 | 50.0% |
| 7 Aug 2024 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Silver Kestrel 24C5 | Yes | 1.07M |
| Npelo123 | Yes | 35.1K |
| motherbear | No | 3.04K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination
| Marvelous-Cornmeal | Yes | 2.59K |
| polymarket-2 | Yes | 2.47K |
| asc | Yes | 1.88K |
| ugyhuijkl | No | 1.79K |
| Jeromeeee | Yes | 1.35K |
| Silky-Liquid | Yes | 1.29K |
| cryptofade | No | 714.94 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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