Will JD Vance say "Midterm" on the Will Cain Show?

Resolved

No, settled May 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.2K

Resolved

Settled

May 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.8%. Yes opened at 45% on 30 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 30 Apr 2026 to 1 May 2026, the highest close was 45% on 30 Apr 2026 and the lowest 2.3% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 43 points down, to 2.3% on 1 May 2026. $1.16K traded over the market's life.

8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 2, 6:07 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 30 Apr 2026 – 1 May 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Apr 2026	45.0%
1 May 2026	2.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
crimer	Yes	35.03
Migges	Yes	31.25
Lavincey	Yes	20
Trastew	Yes	20

8 of 8 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

JD Vance is scheduled to appear on the Will Cain Show on April 29, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/WillCainShow/status/2049245211012870401 This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during this appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Vance is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this interview is definitively cancelled by JD Vance or the Will Cain Show, or otherwise is not released by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.