Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 92.5%. Yes opened at 40% on 5 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 5 Feb 2026 to 4 Mar 2026, the highest close was 51% on 14 Feb 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 4 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 19% on 6 Feb 2026. $24.95K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 5, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 4 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 40.0% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | 7.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.82K |
| pogac4r | Yes | 1.47K |
| Knotty-Vanadyl | Yes | 1.38K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/texas-democratic-senate-primary-first-round-winner
| Yes |
| 1.15K |
| vanillaleopard | Yes | 999.19 |
| sc123 | Yes | 545.8 |
| Cryptozoology | Yes | 250 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 200 |
| Lagrive8 | Yes | 200 |
| maxsmart | Yes | 100 |
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