Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 46% on 21 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 43 daily closes on record from 21 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 46% on 21 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 7% on 22 Nov 2025. $106.66K traded over the market's life.
97 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 43 points, 21 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Nov 2025 | 46.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi issues a public apology for her recent comments indicating that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could force a military response from Japan by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A public apology is defined as any statement expressing regret, acknowledging error, or retracting her comments which is released in a manner intended for public consumption. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Sanae Takaichi; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-japanese-pm-apologize-for-china-comments-in-2025
| Yes |
| 1.67K |
| yy666888 | Yes | 1.38K |
| SudoUser | Yes | 981.77 |
| Sniveling-Cliff | Yes | 729.91 |
| AtomPower | Yes | 600 |
| zzkyo | Yes | 577.5 |
| Cryptobiutime | Yes | 519.79 |
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