Will January 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 11, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$80.8K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 11, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 11 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 45% on 30 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 44 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2025 to 11 Feb 2026, the highest close was 45% on 30 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 6 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 6.5% on 31 Dec 2025. $80.84K traded over the market's life.

63 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 13, 12:23 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 30 Dec 2025 – 11 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Dec 2025	45.0%
11 Feb 2026	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	27.64K
PCMTest	Yes	10.46K
tomisch	Yes	4.26K
zugzwaaang	Yes	2.39K

10 of 63 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2026 versus the data points available for all other Januaries on record. Note: If January 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.