Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 46% on 3 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 66 daily closes on record from 3 Sep 2025 to 7 Nov 2025, the highest close was 46% on 3 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 7 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 7.5% on 4 Sep 2025. $5.7K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 7:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 66 points, 3 Sep 2025 – 7 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2025 | 46.0% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.3K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 765 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 647.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate wins the 2025 special election for Texas's 18th Congressional District to replace former Representative Sylvester Turner. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a runoff, this market's resolution will be based on the runoff's outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/texas-house-special-election-winner
| Yes |
| 502.52 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 253 |
| paspor | Yes | 136.84 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 84.82 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 63 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 61 |
| yzhaobk | Yes | 57.51 |
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