Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 23 Apr 2026. Before it settled, the high was 47.5% on 23 Apr 2026 and the low 0.1% on 3 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 12% on 25 Apr 2026. $1.23K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 104 points · 23 Apr 2026 – 5 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Apr 2026 | 47.5% |
| 5 Aug 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.85K |
| merod | Yes | 478 |
| mildwindow27 | Yes | 271 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mo-06-republican-primary-winner
| Yes |
| 237.45 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 211.33 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 134.05 |
| balthazar | Yes | 110.46 |
| graynotebook19 | Yes | 104.1 |
| 52adsa | Yes | 37.64 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 36.4 |
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