Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98%. Yes opened at 21.5% on 2 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2024 to 5 Oct 2024, the highest close was 21.5% on 2 Oct 2024 and the lowest 2% on 5 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 11.5% on 3 Oct 2024. $32.2K traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 6, 6:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 2 Oct 2024 – 5 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2024 | 21.5% |
| 5 Oct 2024 | 2.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the municipality of Tehran or any target within the municipality, between September 30 and October 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetec actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market, even if it enters Tehran’s airspace and its wreckage lands in Tehran. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-israel-target-in-iran
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