Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 20% on 2 Oct 2024. Before it settled, the high was 20% on 2 Oct 2024 and the low 1.1% on 5 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 12.5% on 3 Oct 2024. $111.94K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 6, 6:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 4 points · 2 Oct 2024 – 5 Oct 2024 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2024 | 20.0% |
| 5 Oct 2024 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Kronos | Yes | 600 |
| Next-Geranium | Yes | 214.16 |
| btchip-test | Yes | 45.36 |
| Unfit-Kid | Yes | 3.33 |
| SZdegen | Yes | 3.33 |
| Sawelop | No | 0.03 |
| 090x | Yes | 0.02 |
| ParthMehta | No | 0.02 |
| kekwkek | Yes | 0.01 |
| Jbb | Yes | 0.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between September 30 and October 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-israel-target-in-iran
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