Analytics
Resolved No on 29 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.1%. Yes opened at 10% on 26 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 26 Sep 2025 to 29 Sep 2025, the highest close was 10% on 26 Sep 2025 and the lowest 2.9% on 29 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 3.5% on 27 Sep 2025. $19.41K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 30, 8:42 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 26 Sep 2025 – 29 Sep 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2025 | 10.0% |
| 29 Sep 2025 | 2.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tetrose | Yes | 8.94K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.55K |
| oracolul-din-balcesti | Yes | 1.67K |
| MisterMiagi | Yes | 1.19K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the first day ET Israel next initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate. This market will resolve to "No strike" if no qualifying strike is conducted by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Only strikes which occur after market issuance will be considered. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on-918
| Ziigmund | Yes | 529.55 |
| Gogi1213 | Yes | 256.41 |
| MDK-EDK | Yes | 163.83 |
| ledrakeo | Yes | 144.8 |
| Cointoy | Yes | 101.09 |
| jiamibaobao2 | Yes | 80 |
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