Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 97.9%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 15 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 15 Sep 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 97.9% on 1 Oct 2025 and the lowest 38% on 16 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 60.5% on 19 Sep 2025. $91.38K traded over the market's life.
51 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 15 Sep 2025 – 1 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Sep 2025 | 40.5% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 97.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 20.19K |
| Ram19 | No | 600 |
| sachia | No | 550 |
| twigsow | No | 529.13 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to according to the number of days (ET) on which Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemeni embassy or consulate between September 14, 5:30 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple strikes occur within 4 hours of each other, it will count as a single strike regardless of if the strikes span two days (e.g. If Israel strikes on September 15, 10:00 PM ET and and September 16. 1 AM ET this will counts as a single strike for September 15. The timing of the strike will be based on the reported time of impact. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemeni ground territory or any official Yemeni embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemeni soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemeni territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-israeli-strikes-on-yemen-by-sep-30
| uppppwinner | No | 413.97 |
| emiral | No | 388.33 |
| Shabby-Pollutant | No | 313.82 |
| 1a1 | No | 208.46 |
| Echelonprt | No | 200 |
| Edic | No | 177.04 |
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