Analytics
Resolved Yes on 15 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.7%. Yes opened at 50% on 3 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 3 Sep 2025 to 15 Sep 2025, the highest close was 100% on 12 Sep 2025 and the lowest 16.5% on 7 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 77 points up, to 98.7% on 9 Sep 2025. $2.06M traded over the market's life.
181 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 16, 8:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 3 Sep 2025 – 15 Sep 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2025 | 50.0% |
| 15 Sep 2025 | 99.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| KEX666 | No | 139.19K |
| Orange-Clipper | No | 117K |
| Eminent-Acupuncture | No | 68K |
| Zaidalawneh1 | No | 49K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Syrian soil or any Syrian embassy or consulate between September 2, 5 PM ET, and September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Syrian ground territory or any official Syrian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Syrian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Syrian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-strike-syria-by-september-15
| Fabri98 | No | 44.86K |
| Daddypookiebear | No | 43.55K |
| shpitz | No | 40.03K |
| JJdan | No | 40K |
| Erik271200 | No | 36.7K |
| anta | No | 35.19K |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
