Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 57.5% on 1 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 1 Dec 2025 to 9 Dec 2025, the highest close was 57.5% on 1 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 9 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 1.1% on 7 Dec 2025. $32.73K traded over the market's life.
31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 1 Dec 2025 – 9 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Dec 2025 | 57.5% |
| 9 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Anihazak | Yes | 2.54K |
| Myway | Yes | 739.42 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| UsamaBinPredicting | Yes | 115.56 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-strike-lebanon-on
| ChristopherBeck1124 | Yes | 83 |
| RandyEvans9934 | Yes | 77 |
| KathrynMorris6603 | Yes | 69.53 |
| PatriciaCunningham3724 | Yes | 64.01 |
| JulieLynn1371 | Yes | 38 |
| Unsightly-Extent | Yes | 33.33 |
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