Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 2 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 10.5% on 2 Dec 2025 and the low 0.4% on 31 Dec 2025. $17.66K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 2 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Dec 2025 | 10.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| WhatTheHelly | Yes | 1.41K |
| Paner | Yes | 833.99 |
| 26lkkdasdsa | Yes | 379.86 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 339 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 141.22 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 127 |
| 00000000AAAAAAAA | Yes | 100 |
| Sinbad | Yes | 100 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 99 |
| wjusty | Yes | 83.14 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iraqi soil or any Iraqi embassy or consulate between December 1, 4 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iraqi ground territory or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iraqi territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-strike-iraq-by-december-31
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
