Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.8%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 12 Oct 2024. Before it settled, the high was 7.5% on 12 Oct 2024 and the low 1.3% on 21 Oct 2024. $130.56K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 22, 6:57 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 12 Oct 2024 – 21 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Oct 2024 | 7.5% |
| 21 Oct 2024 | 1.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 27.13K |
| Rawrster | Yes | 5.43K |
| gigiotti | Yes | 3.29K |
| Alessandro150577 | Yes | 2K |
| niroz | Yes | 1.66K |
| Royal Orbit EDD8 | Yes | 148.53 |
| Primakov | Yes | 27.27 |
| Cosmicbets | Yes | 10 |
| GOOCH | Yes | 1.45 |
| herheghe | Yes | 0.71 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel’s first military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies after October 10, occurs on October 20, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20
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