Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.4%. Yes opened at 24% on 12 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 12 Oct 2024 to 15 Oct 2024, the highest close was 24% on 12 Oct 2024 and the lowest 1.7% on 15 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 6.5% on 14 Oct 2024. $670.54K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 16, 7:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 12 Oct 2024 – 15 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Oct 2024 | 24.0% |
| 15 Oct 2024 | 1.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 27.13K |
| Indigo Tide 0256 | Yes | 203 |
| Solar Horizon 9F09 | Yes | 150 |
| Misty Atlas 32F5 | Yes | 132 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel’s first military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies after October 10, occurs between October 11 and October 14, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20
| mvmt | Yes | 20 |
| Mandone | Yes | 18.52 |
| Pite | Yes | 10 |
| Keen Atlas 3F14 | Yes | 10 |
| YOUSSEF | Yes | 6 |
| Bamill | Yes | 5.26 |
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