Analytics
Resolved Yes on 23 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 37.5%. Yes opened at 67.5% on 5 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 73% on 7 Nov 2025 and the low 37.5% on 6 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 36 points up, to 73% on 7 Nov 2025. $77.28K traded over the market's life.
34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 24, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 5 Nov 2025 – 23 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2025 | 67.5% |
| 23 Nov 2025 | 37.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| monstermunch | No | 1.07K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 1.05K |
| Horrible-Blazer | No | 599.99 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 221 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 163 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 157 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 115 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 112 |
| Dgitsxgjtsxjurscjj | No | 100 |
| assertequal | No | 66 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut by December 31, 2025, Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-strike-beirut-by-september
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