Analytics
Resolved Yes on 16 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 28.5%. Yes opened at 62.5% on 13 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 16 Nov 2025, the highest close was 62.5% on 13 Nov 2025 and the lowest 28.5% on 16 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 28.5% on 16 Nov 2025. $83.13K traded over the market's life.
79 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 19, 3:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 16 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 62.5% |
| 16 Nov 2025 | 28.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ThunderBringer | No | 1.11K |
| prayingfordownfall | No | 1.02K |
| Anihazak | No | 934.28 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 904 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379
| Primapudder | No | 755.13 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | No | 642.45 |
| Prestigious-Die | No | 402.5 |
| Bananaak | No | 400 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 372 |
| RandomUserNL | No | 230 |
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