Analytics
Resolved Yes on 3 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 16%. Yes opened at 17% on 1 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 1 Jan 2026 to 3 Jan 2026, the highest close was 19.5% on 2 Jan 2026 and the lowest 16% on 3 Jan 2026. $32.06K traded over the market's life.
44 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 7:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 1 Jan 2026 – 3 Jan 2026, chart shows 12%–24%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2026 | 17.0% |
| 3 Jan 2026 | 16.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LukeGamma | No | 1.7K |
| Feline-Amazon | No | 1.37K |
| yhj754ghfhfg | No | 1K |
| Lanky-Councilor | Yes | 654.24 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-strike-gaza-on-358
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 653.99 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 450 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 367 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 300 |
| Amazing-Tensor | No | 277.76 |
| Dense-Daffodil | No | 229.41 |
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