Analytics
Resolved No on 26 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 15 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2026 to 26 Jan 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 15 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 26 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 3.9% on 24 Jan 2026. $33.97K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 27, 12:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 15 Jan 2026 – 26 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | 50.5% |
| 26 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| huitdg | Yes | 6K |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 1.5K |
| Cdose | Yes | 719.4 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 376 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-strike-gaza-on-358
| YG1116 | Yes | 212.05 |
| nevergamble | Yes | 200 |
| porsche911gts | Yes | 200 |
| from10dollarstodream | Yes | 200 |
| happy12398 | Yes | 200 |
| Assured-Offset | Yes | 182.95 |
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