Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96.3%. Yes opened at 44.5% on 6 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 96.3% on 1 Feb 2026 and the lowest 34% on 15 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 58.5% on 17 Jan 2026. $67.11K traded over the market's life.
65 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 44.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 96.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 8.22K |
| if8mXVM2Y | No | 1.05K |
| yPD3uNNf | No | 779 |
| MelissaBoone8735 | No | 373 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-january
| MelissaCraig1098 | No | 261 |
| Dismal-Guidance | No | 260 |
| KARACAC | No | 198.64 |
| Querulous-Salami | No | 185 |
| Cultured-Daily | No | 170 |
| 0xRocket666 | No | 150 |
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