Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 7 ET?

Resolved

No, settled Oct 2, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$21.8K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 2, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 2 Oct 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 5% on 29 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 29 Sep 2025 to 2 Oct 2025, the highest close was 5% on 29 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Oct 2025. $21.8K traded over the market's life.

13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 3, 12:43 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 29 Sep 2025 – 2 Oct 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
29 Sep 2025	5.0%
2 Oct 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	41.78K
Ziigmund	Yes	4.64K
untaken	Yes	2.21K
Accurate-Gnu	Yes	1K

10 of 13 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The Global Sumud Flotilla, including its partner initiatives, announced that it will launch a Flotilla towards Gaza from Spanish ports on August 31 and Tunisian ports on September 4. More information can be found here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/31/gaza-humanitarian-flotilla-departs-barcelona-to-break-israeli-siege This market will resolve according to the date ET Israeli military or law enforcement personnel first physically board any vessel participating in the initiative, without authorization or consent from the crew or organizers. This market will resolve to "No raid" if no qualifying raid is conducted by October 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Escorting, shadowing, or issuing warnings without boarding does not count. Boarding with the crew’s consent also will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OOWptcSxkg